Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 182.473265 214.861609 252.924947 301.383451 362.041979 436.276050 5.352660e+02
2025-11-02 141.354829 180.063960 230.417757 302.156122 404.168933 547.958723 7.734699e+02
2025-11-09 114.897849 154.539938 209.932759 295.628555 429.960676 642.015831 1.023777e+03
2025-11-16 97.171376 136.227350 193.906432 289.189426 451.019093 732.487679 1.306210e+03
2025-11-23 84.135617 121.932423 180.312058 282.145845 467.339072 818.195327 1.620223e+03
2025-11-30 79.356222 119.104000 183.505247 302.711014 536.747827 1026.318200 2.312847e+03
2025-12-07 72.470047 111.736736 177.767390 305.878336 573.563935 1182.189999 2.991365e+03
2025-12-14 67.415152 106.597461 174.841494 313.378620 621.147496 1382.661558 3.963648e+03
2025-12-21 62.064604 100.202520 168.598571 312.865159 650.790344 1552.240517 5.005251e+03
2025-12-28 60.243568 99.746643 173.165746 335.565838 742.395970 1939.984223 7.373008e+03
2026-01-04 57.924213 98.052713 175.028484 352.741683 826.374722 2358.090745 1.061220e+04
2026-01-11 55.479954 95.804660 175.405887 366.572452 906.659314 2820.844380 1.515714e+04
2026-01-18 52.449969 92.241672 172.897368 373.886645 974.304682 3304.059452 2.144791e+04
2026-01-25 49.274294 88.052663 168.508095 375.719657 1026.962379 3778.363618 2.970618e+04
2026-02-01 45.695488 82.676490 160.811356 367.351822 1043.475340 4107.820504 3.826461e+04
2026-02-08 42.510789 77.796980 153.614911 358.956150 1057.578813 4447.239002 4.937889e+04
2026-02-15 39.615113 73.244946 146.608713 349.744546 1065.900115 4771.885047 6.324930e+04
2026-02-22 39.196575 73.883618 151.759483 376.722134 1226.929391 6239.345461 1.229600e+05
2026-03-01 37.471719 71.524778 149.428939 380.889128 1297.847942 7224.570645 1.953684e+05
2026-03-08 36.180525 69.995149 148.936540 390.767140 1400.167794 8651.325910 3.524863e+05
2026-03-15 34.471800 67.375242 145.388091 390.090427 1454.247950 9784.398054 5.820318e+05
2026-03-22 34.262919 68.139916 150.612205 420.085552 1679.887362 13232.204851 1.824031e+06
2026-03-29 33.692230 68.008279 153.474106 442.879268 1886.499030 17264.258409 6.825792e+06